Euroscope / June 2025

On Monday 2nd of June, Russian and Ukrainian delegates met in Istanbul for a second round of direct peace talks. This came just a day after Kyiv’s daring “Spiderweb” drone operation, a strike President Volodymyr Zelensky described as “a year and a half in the making". The operation consisted of smuggling wooden mobile homes outfitted with concealed drones across the border, and remotely deploying them to hit nuclear-capable bomber bases. Despite this high-profile opening salvo, negotiators made little headway on a ceasefire, instead agreeing only to work on a new prisoner-swap, agreeing to exchange 1,000 PoWs each, with the possibility of an additional 200, and to returning the remains of fallen service members once logistical preparations are complete. As reported by Russia state news agencies RIA Novosti and Tass, Moscow outlined two ceasefire “options” in its memorandum. Under the first, Ukrainian forces would fully withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, i.e., the four regions Russia annexed in 2022 but has never fully secured. The alternative “package deal” would see Ukrainian troops demobilized, a halt to all foreign military aid (including intelligence), the lifting of martial law and national elections no later than 100 days thereafter. However, as it remains unclear on whether Kyiv can pick a single option or must accept both, Ukraine’s defense minister, Rustem Umerov, who led the delegation, said they would need about a week to review Russia’s proposal and decide on its response, with follow-up talks penciled in for between 20 and 30 June. Meanwhile, Ukraine has proposed a summit between Zelensky and President Putin by the end of the month, hoping to break the diplomatic impasse and test Moscow’s seriousness about a genuine ceasefire.

For the first time since Ukraine is at war with Russia, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić paid a visit by attending the Ukraine–Southeast Europe Summit in the Black Sea port of Odesa. In his keynote address, Vučić offered Belgrade’s help in Ukraine’s reconstruction, suggesting Serbia could “rebuild one or two cities or a smaller region” once the conflict ends, emphasizing his country's practical and constructive role, without grand slogans and drawing undue attention. Yet, he was the only summit participant to withhold his signature from the joint declaration condemning Russia’s invasion, explaining that its call for additional sanctions on Moscow clashed with Serbia’s official stance. In fact, although Belgrade has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the country has maintained neutrality throughout the war, rooted in deep historical and cultural ties with Russia and a strategic dependence on Russian oil and gas. This summit highlighted Vučić’s delicate balancing act between East and Wes, as demonstrated by Vučić's decision to Vučić to attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, a move that drew criticism from Brussels even as he insisted it would not derail Serbia’s “European path". So, this can be understood as a strategy to carefully preserve Serbia’s ties to both Kyiv and Moscow and keep its EU accession hopes alive.

In Southern Europe, coordinated anti-“overtourism” protests erupted after frustrated residents in gentrifying neighborhoods blamed a surge in visitors for overcrowding, rising rents and a dearth of housing. While some drew some graffiti reading "Tourist go home" on walls and shop windows, some others made headlines by squirting water pistols at unsuspecting holiday-makers. Many locals argue that the boom in short-term tourist flats pushes up residential rents and squeezes out long-term tenants, turning historic city centers into “theme-park” environments that undermine their livability. With critics about the effectiveness of rental regulations or hotel construction as solutions to the wider housing crisis, pressure is mounting on municipal and national authorities to clamp down on unlicensed holiday lets and to rebalance the accommodation market. While a variety of demand-management tools are being tested in other places in Europe, such as timed tickets for the Acropolis in Greece or a small access fee for day-trippers during peak weekend in Venice, Japanese authorities erected a giant screen last year to block photo-hungry crowds from congesting the road for a near-perfect view of Mount Fuji. The objective is to curb the excesses of mass tourism while preserving both local quality of life and the visitor economy.

At this year's NATO Summit, the Allies agreed to more than double their collective defence spending target, committing to invest 5% of GDP annually by 2035. Out of this, at least 3.5% must be devoted to "core defence requirements", from equipment and personnel to meeting NATO Capability Targets, while the remaining 1.5% may fund critical-infrastructure protection, cyber-defence, civil-preparedness, innovation and a stronger defence industrial base. While several countries have already begun reprioritizing budgets, such as the the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez emerged as the most candid critic of the higher goal, warning that “if we had accepted 5 percent, Spain would have to spend by 2035 an extra €300 billion on defence. Where would it come from? From cuts in health and education.” His objections highlighted a wider dilemma: many European members, already grappling with social and environmental spending shortfalls as their post-pandemic Recovery and Resilience Facility winds down in 2026, will struggle to hit even the 3.5 percent core-spending threshold without raising taxes or renegotiating fiscal rules. Yet, for the U.S. to reaffirm Article 5 guarantee, the promise to defend any Ally under attack, higher European contributions is non-negotiable. And for Europe to be safeguarded, it is essential to meet security objectives not just with words but with sustained, measurable investment.

On June 26, at the European Council summit, EU leaders issued a joint call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the unconditional release of all hostages, while warning that they will begin reviewing Israel’s compliance with the human-rights provisions of their 2000 Association Agreement. However, despite unanimous support for humanitarian pauses, the declaration fell short of some member states’ demands to suspend the entire agreement. For instance, Spain and Ireland had pushed to block EU–Israel trade ties, but Germany, among others, insisted on continuing political and military cooperation. In line with European Council President António Costa, who described the humanitarian situation in Gaza as “catastrophic” and said the Council had noted “indications” that Israel’s actions may breach Article 2 of the treaty, which requires both parties to uphold fundamental rights and freedoms, the Council has tasked EU Foreign Ministers with reconvening in July to decide whether to propose formal measures against Israel, taking into account developments on the ground. President Costa also stressed that a lasting peace hinges on progress toward a two-state solution, and underlined that Hamas must immediately free the remaining hostages to move negotiations forward.