Euroscope / May 2025

è In line with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's statement that the EU remains prepared for all possibilities concerning trade deals with the U.S., a draft package of counter-tariffs and export restrictions worth almost €95 billion ($107 billion) was unveiled on Thursday 08th of May. Yet, this would only be applicable if talks fail to roll back U.S. duties before the White House’s 90-day pause, which expires on 9 July 2025. As a reminder, the EU already faces a 25% levy on its steel, aluminum and cars, with a blanket 10 percent duty on almost all other goods, set to rise to 20%, or even 50%, following Trust's frustration by what he described in a social-media post as trade talks "going nowhere". Such tariff standoff could tip the eurozone into recession, so this draft comes at a critical moment. Indeed, "a 50 percent tariff could substantially hamper growth and prompt the ECB to continue its monetary easing,” said Edmond de Rothschild strategists, while Barclays analysts added that such a shock “would likely force ECB rates closer to the zero-lower bound". Hence, it is crucial for Brussels to have its retaliatory response ready by July while pursuing a negotiated solution.

Speaking at a payments conference in Frankfurt, ECB board member Piero Cipollone explained that while the technical work on a digital version of the single currency is largely complete, the bank cannot move forward until the requisite legislation clears the European Parliament and the Council. “We need the legislation in place,” Cipollone said, “and from that, two to three years will be enough to launch the digital euro”. After years of delay, the ECB signaled that it hopes to have the legal framework for a digital euro in place “very early next year". Amid growing concerns over Europe's reliance on non-EU payment providers, i.e., roughly two-thirds of credit-card transactions in the euro area are handled by big U.S. firm, the push for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) has taken on fresh urgency recently. A strategic vulnerability that has only been further exposed after the financial turbulence triggered by President Trump’s election. Just as other central banks worldwide race to issue their own CBDCs (e.g., Russia, China, India), the ECB's roadmap is meant to guarantee that Europe remains competitive and secure in the future of money. With features like QR-code code, link-based payments, and offline functionality, the digital euro would enable citizens to make direct peer-to-peer and merchant payments both online and offline, strengthening Europe’s monetary sovereignty and resilience in an increasingly fragmented global payments landscape.

Ukraine’s journey from candidate status to this point has been swift: the country applied for membership on 28 February 2022, just days after Russia’s full-scale invasion, and received candidate status in June 2022. In December 2023, EU leaders agreed to launch accession negotiations, and since last autumn the Commission and Kyiv have been conducting a detailed screening of the first of 33 policy chapters. Now, the European Commission has just declared that Ukraine is “ready” to open its first cluster of EU accession negotiations, marking the most significant procedural milestone in the enlargement process since formal talks began last year. According to the Commission, notable strides have been made, in areas such as the rule of law, judicial, and public administration, with reform on the freedom of expression, media independence, and anti-corruption framework. Coming up next is a chapter-by-chapter negotiation, where each of the 33 chapters of the EU acquis must be examined, debated, and closed by unanimous agreement of all member-state governments. And only once every chapter has been satisfactorily completed will the Commission issue its final opinion on Ukraine’s readiness for membership. Then, the accession treaty must receive approval from the Commission, European Council and the European Parliament, before being signed by all parties and ratified by Ukraine and each EU country under their respective constitutional procedures.

Another summer, another intense wildfire season. By late May, more than 166 000 hectares had already burned across the EU, nearly three times the 2003–2024 average for the same period, while Romania alone has lost over 120 000 hectares, and France’s tally stands at almost 19 000 hectares (that represents 2.75 times its 20-year mean). So, with Europe bracing for it, the Commission announced a major pre-positioning of emergency resources the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. In the high-risk zones of France, Greece, Portugal and Spain, almost 650 firefighters from 14 Member States will be stationed throughout July and August, supported by 26 aircraft (22 planes and 4 helicopters) ready to deploy at a moment’s notice. In France, four medium amphibious water-bombers and one helicopter will join national crews; Greece will host four medium amphibious planes; Croatia, Italy and Spain two each; Sweden four light planes; Portugal and Cyprus two light planes apiece; and Czechia and Slovakia one helicopter each. Co-financed via the EU’s Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), these assets are meant to supplement national capacities, and will also be accompanied by the newly set up dedicated wildfire support team to monitor risks, analyse satellite and forest-fire data and coordinate responses from its 24/7 Brussels hub. This is supposed to ensure a faster, stronger and more coherent collective response, underscoring the Union’s commitment to staying one step ahead of climate-driven disasters and protecting lives, property and ecosystems across Europe.

After Apple maintained “anti-steering” rules in its App Store Guidelines hence breaching the Digital Markets Act (DMA), the Commission published its full-text decision. In its ruling, the EC has given the U.S. company 30 days to bring its App Store policies into full compliance. If it fails to do so, Apple will face “periodic penalty payments” for as long as the breach continues, in addition to the €500 million fine it received last month. One solution for Apple is to allow some customer-acquisition fees so long as they reflect actual costs, while letting developers to communicate directly with customers and conclude contracts without paying Apple a cut. As it stands right now, all developers to use Apple’s in-app payment system, allowing the company to collect commissions of 15–30 percent—and barred them from directing users to alternative payment options. In the U.S., anti-steering provisions have already been struck down, following Epic Games’ successful litigation, leading apps such as Fortnite, Amazon’s Kindle and Spotify to offer payments outside Apple’s system. So, for the Commission, it is crucial to make sure that any enduring barriers to steering users to third-party payment methods are anticompetitive under the DMA.