Ukraine's accession path to the EU
The debate about Ukraine's path for European Union (EU) membership has become a highly controversial and omnipresent topic in contemporary discourse, flooding various media platforms and information sources on a daily basis. It particularly gained traction among the general public in the aftermath of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, on February 22, 2022. Three years later, it continues feeding debates, and has become a recurring and polarising issue in public discourse, with a high level of exposure for many people, regardless of their interests, being exposed to information and views on the topic.
For many, this question is primarily about the need - or not - to provide military assistance to Ukraine in its defence against Russia. However, it would be foolish to reduce this topic to a simple question of fan base support. The matter at hand is of crucial importance and complex nature, with ramifications for the future of Ukrainians and Europeans, and, in a broader sense, numerous other actors on the global stage, including Russia and the United States. What’s more, the issue has been a subject of discussion since at least the 1990s, a period characterised by significant geopolitical shifts in Eastern Europe.
Structured around three key periods, this analysis examines Ukraine's path towards the European Union, taking into account the relationship between Ukraine and the EU from a foreign policy perspective. Firstly, the years between Ukrainian independence in 1991 and the Orange Revolution in 2004, a period marked by post-Soviet transition and the emergence of European aspirations, will be explored. Then, the focus will be on the decade between 2004 and 2014, covering the aftermath of the Orange Revolution and the events leading up to Euromaidan. Finally, the analysis will turn to the post-2014 period, marked by the continuation of the conflict, national resilience and the acceleration of the EU integration process.
Executive Summary
From 1991 to 2004, Ukraine’s foreign policy was defined by its “multi-vector” strategy. After gaining independence, Ukraine officially embraced EU integration as a strategic objective. At the same time, internal political fragmentation and economic dependence on Russia prevented the formation of a coherent national direction. While Western regions in Ukraine leaned toward Europe, the Eastern ones sought stronger ties with Russia.
The EU failed to offer Ukraine a credible membership perspective. Instead of a clear accession path, Ukraine was placed within the European Neighbourhood Policy framework, which lacked the transformative leverage used with other Central and Eastern European countries. Although the EU employed soft power and conditionality, its influence remained limited, and Ukrainian political elites proved unwilling or unable to implement the structural changes required by the EU.
The Orange Revolution in 2004 marked a turning point. Sparked by popular resistance to electoral fraud, it reignited hopes for democratic reform and deeper European alignment. However, many structural problems, including institutional weakness, the influence of the political elite, and economic problems persisted. As such, the revolution signalled not the culmination of Ukraine’s European path, but rather the fragile end of its post-Soviet transition.